
The first principle of insurance reflects the fundamental lesson of the tragic California fires: you can’t get something for nothing. If expected losses from wildfires this year are $N, and the expected losses materialize, then it will take $N to compensate those whose homes have been destroyed by fire. Either $N must already be on hand, or the difference between the dollars on hand and $N will have to be raised going forward. There is no insurance trick, or mystery, or device, or legerdemain that can circumvent this fundamental, sobering truth. The question is where you get that money. Ultimately, if you don’t have, or get, all the money to pay for fire losses, then the homeowners pay, in whole or in part, through a massive diminution of their net wealth because of the destruction of their homes.
If somehow fire risk could be radically reduced, the problem could be solved. But I take it as axiomatic that this is not going to occur in the short term, and probably not much in the middle term. Major fire losses will persist. In the future, therefore, the losses will have to be paid to, or shouldered by, homeowners.